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The four-week timeline priced in by the market represents a critical threshold for the global economy. Struyven noted that the impact on oil prices is a “convex function” of the disruption’s length. If the conflict is brief—lasting only a few days or a week—the impact on prices will be disproportionately smaller. In a short-term scenario, crude oil can simply be stored on land in Middle Eastern producing countries, delaying deliveries but leaving the cumulative global supply unaffected—a workaround if Iran’s threats of shutting down the Strait stretch come to fruition.
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